11 March 2021. The Political Risk Outlook 2021 contains expert research and analysis from senior members of our Country Risk Intelligence team, exploring the key global issues and country-level risks impacting multinational companies and investors today. Webinar recording of KPMG and Eurasia Groups Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. Chile’s November presidential election, and election of a body to draft a new constitution, could reignite mass protests this year. The disparate rebel alliance will likely disintegrate in the coming months, leading to increased inter-rebel clashes as groups compete for control of territory outside of Bangui. Political violence in Mali increased in intensity throughout 2020, which is a trend that will likely continue this year. Despite the development of vaccines, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to have a profound impact on public health worldwide. One factor behind the escalation in violence is the internecine war between JNIM and ISGS. Low or negative growth and government stimulus packages will increase debt burdens substantially, putting pressure on countries to cut public spending, especially in emerging markets. Agility in decision-making, operations and strategy will be crucial for managing the fallout from COVID-19 and associated political risks … JANUARY: FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER UNCONFIRMED January. Lockdowns and other COVID-19-related restrictions will have a negative impact on global growth rates for at least the first half of 2021. Even without the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical risk levels would likely be at uncomfortable levels due to the myriad of internal and external tensions and flashpoints that have proliferated around the globe in recent years. The incident highlights the potential for further violent protests and unrest, amid increasing political polarisation. But given the various competing global and regional challenges, Pyongyang would have to carry out a major provocation to successfully employ those tactics this year. Armenia has suffered from high unemployment and a weak economy in recent years. Militants affiliated with the Islamic State (IS) group stepped up attacks in Cabo Delgado province in late 2020. Pashinyan is likely to shuffle government ministers to consolidate his support base. The Asia Risk Awards return in 2021 to recognise best practice in risk management and derivatives use by banks and financial institutions around the region. Continued tensions between Iran and the US and its allies are likely to pose a significant threat to regional security in the year ahead. We highlight three key areas for risk managers. Top 2021 Geopolitical Risks. Many Armenians view NK as symbolically and culturally important. The UK and EU are likely to form another agreement over services in the year ahead, though it is unclear what its terms will be and how they will affect the UK economy. Geopolitical Risk. In developed countries particularly, there are likely to be more anti-lockdown and anti-vaccination protests. The ISA International Market Potential Calculator, « The Six Main Issues Confronting President-Elect Biden. As geopolitical turbulence persists, these digital rights risks will force regulatory action in 2021. There is an elevated risk of civil unrest in Chile, Ecuador and Peru in the year ahead due to upcoming national elections. On 19 April, Raul Castro will step down as the Communist Party’s First Secretary to make way for President Miguel Diaz-Canel, who will become the first person outside the Castro family to preside over Cuba in over 60 years. Discontent over the details of the ceasefire could allow opposition parties to reshape their image and mount a stronger threat to Pashinyan. Trump and his allies in the Republican Party will likely continue to make unfounded allegations of electoral fraud to delegitimise Biden’s victory, fuelling further unrest and potential violence as the year progresses. Contact us to discuss how we can help: riskanalysis@pgitl.com, If you have any questions about our services or would like to learn more about our consultants here at PGI, please get in touch with us and speak with one of the team, call us on +44 (0)845 600 4403 or email us at sales@pgitl.com, +44 (0) 845 600 4403 PGI - Protection Group International, 13-14 Angel Gate, London, England, EC1V 2PT. Licensed for reuse. Peru’s 26 January legislative elections and 11 April presidential election are potential flashpoints for civil unrest following the controversial removal of the former president. There is a risk of increased civil unrest in the year ahead following Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s agreement to a 9 November ceasefire with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) region. As the year progresses, developed countries may struggle to meet vaccination timelines, while many developing countries could struggle to procure and administer enough vaccines due to insufficient financial resources and poor healthcare infrastructure. That said, the challenges in relations between the two countries are structural and deeply rooted. By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021 By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021, at 3:56 p.m. Or you may find a Geopolitical Risk Portal subscription helpful – we offer a 1-month free trial of the platform to allow you to test out the functionality. 08-01-2021. Increased militant activity in the wider Sahel region has also led to warnings of a heightened risk to foreign nationals in West African coastal cities, such as Accra, Abidjan and Dakar. Civil unrest in the south will continue to pose significant threats to the energy industries as protesters regularly attempt to block oil fields. China is America's strongest competitor, a state capitalist, authoritarian, and techno-surveillance regime that is … Every year in January, Eurasia Group, KPMG's Global Alliance partner, publishes its Top Risks report which forecasts key geopolitical risks for the year ahead. From ongoing COVID-19 challenges to election-related unrest across South America, these are the areas that our Analysts have identified as potentially having significant impact on the economy and business operations. The overall security situation is likely to worsen throughout 2021. Mass protests broke out in November 2020 after Congress impeached popular former president Martin Vizcarra on alleged corruption charges. States and organisations caught in this geopolitical battle will need to understand where the fault lines and key nuances in this competition lie to increase their own room for manoeuvre. Travellers in coastal cities are at an increased risk of being targeted by militants at hotels and other venues frequented by foreigners. ISA (International Strategic Analysis) is one of the world’s leading providers of international market analysis, economic forecasting and The key discussion topics of the event will be: Fearful of Tehran’s ambitions, Israel will likely continue to disrupt any potential rapprochement between the US and Iran. PGI's Geopolitical Intelligence team have put together a list of some of the key risks for 2021. Protests are likely to be violently suppressed by security forces and pro-government militias. In late December 2020 to early January 2021, JNIM killed five French soldiers in two separate IED attacks in Mali’s Menaka and Mopti regions. Even though oil prices are expected to rise as worldwide lockdowns and travel bans are lifted, the economy is unlikely to recover in the near-term, meaning there is a high risk of election-related nationwide protests, particularly in Baghdad and the southern regions. For an optimal experience visit … Risk… There is also a potential risk of unrest expanding to Kurdistan. Top Risks 2021. Turkey has also suggested including Yerevan in a regional cooperation platform alongside Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Georgia if the country is perceived to pursue regional peace. The risks posed by North Korea’s weapons programme are likely to persist in 2021. Negotiations could take several months and harm investor confidence. The key discussion topics of the event will be: Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. Last year marked the deadliest year on record in Mali, with Islamist militant groups stepping up attacks against local and foreign security forces and civilians. In the Global Risks Report 2021, we share the results of the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), For an optimal experience visit … IE 11 is not supported. You are cordially invited to a webinar on Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. In response to this, we discuss short and long-term political and geopolitical risks outlining how Covid-19 will exacerbate pre-existing domestic tensions … Social media companies will likely come under more pressure to crack down on harmful content. … However, Biden’s domestic-focused, pro-multilateralism policy stance suggests that he is unlikely to take the same approach as the Trump administration. Coronavirus vaccine diplomacy adds “a new weapon” to the arsenal of competing powers, and is likely to cause older geopolitical tensions to resurface, according to Marsh’s 2021 political risk … Trade operations with the EU, as well as between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, will require more paperwork, which could overburden local businesses and damage commerce. Geopolitical risks will continue to evolve in 2021 to produce even more unpredictable events. Unrest among Trump’s supporters is unlikely to subside substantially in the year ahead. Email me. A change in the country’s top leadership in April increases the potential for political and economic reforms in the year ahead. Tehran-backed militia groups are also likely to continue abducting and assassinating anti-government activists, which may prompt retaliatory attacks on Iranian diplomatic missions and businesses. The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI) tracks the relative frequency of analyst reports and financial news stories associated with geopolitical risks. The militants also continued to encroach on Palma town, which was likely an effort to cut off Total’s Afungi LNG facility. On 28 December, militants attacked Monjane town, just 5 km from the facility, forcing the energy company to evacuate staff. 04 March 2021. Editor’s Note. Geopolitical risk: US-China among flashpoints with highest probability of escalation 25 February 2021. Risk 3: Climate: net zero meets G-Zero. These are the top geopolitical risks seen around the world, according to Eurasia Group. These are the top geopolitical risks seen around the world, according to Eurasia Group. 6 April 2021. Today we release our Fall 2020 Investor Update . However, the rebel coalition may attempt to blockade Bangui, which would further undermine Touadera’s authority, increase food and resource insecurity, and bolster rebel group activity in areas outside of government control. Peru’s presidency is up for grabs in what projects to be one of the most competitive elections in recent memory. As a result, geopolitical risk levels entering 2021 are as high as they have been since any time over the past ten to fifteen years, a less-than-welcome development for a world that is struggling to overcome the dislocations caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Both groups have stepped up attacks in an effort to signal their superiority and influence throughout Mali and the wider Sahel region. View Analysis. Mass protests triggered by a rise in subway fares erupted in October 2019, but quickly developed into wider unrest over long-term socioeconomic grievances. The 16th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report analyses the risks from societal fractures—manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, youth disillusionment, and geopolitical fragmentation. Resource nationalism surges in 2020, Covid-19 worsens outlook. The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI) tracks the relative frequency of analyst reports and financial news stories associated with geopolitical risks. In late 2020, the group launched multiple cross border attacks in neighbouring Tanzania, which were the first such incidents since 2019. Early general elections planned for 6 June are likely to reignite civil unrest. The UK’s trade deal with the EU will pose new regulatory challenges to UK trade. PGI - Protection Group International Ltd is registered in England & Wales, reg. This year's report is available here. 2020’s sting in the tail: Political instability will rise in 88 countries. no. Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. While 2020 was the year COVID-19 took the world by storm, the pandemic’s medium- to long-term effects on the geopolitical environment will begin to crystalize in 2021. UN peacekeepers have reportedly agreed to protect truck convoys bringing supplies from Douala to Bangui. 1. ... 2021 … Pace of interventionism rising sharply, miners in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America face biggest increases in risk. - Geopolitical Risk North Korea has previously relied on weapons tests to garner international attention and force negotiations with major powers, particularly the US. Email me. The recently published 2021 Geostrategic Outlook presents analysis on the global political risk environment in 2021, with geopolitics of COVID-19 as the top risk. geopolitical tensions—will shape the effectiveness of our responses to the other key threats of the next decade: cyberattacks, weapons of mass destruction and, most notably, climate change. Scottish fishermen have already halted exports to the EU over criticisms of the new requirement for health certificates, customs declarations and other paperwork which add days to delivery times and hundreds of pounds in costs. © 2021 PGI - Protection Group International Ltd. All rights reserved. Top 2021 Geopolitical Risks Country risk is an important consideration in building a diversified investment portfolio in capital, private or bond markets, as well as currency or commodities speculation or hedge trading. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Country risk is an important consideration in building a diversified investment portfolio in capital, private or bond markets, as well as currency or … Required fields. Archishman is a second-year BA International Relations student. GEOPOLITICAL AND CYBERSECURITY RISK WEEKLY BRIEF 6 APRIL 2021. President Sebastian Piñera responded by holding a referendum on whether to change the constitution, which was approved by voters. His position as a strong advocate for allowing internet access in Cuba also suggests the country may embrace a more moderate direction. 2021 will be a year of uneven vaccine rollouts and uneven recovery. Control Risks 2021 Geopolitical Calendar. The webinar was held January 26 2021. 21-01-2021. Particularly in the first half of 2021, as businesses adapt to the new regulations, trade could suffer from added costs and delays. Potential reforms will, however, likely face internal resistance from the traditional wing of the party. Bilateral tensions are likely to move further from economic to security issues in 2021, with the main flashpoints being human rights concerns, the South China Sea and Taiwan. Riots broke out in Washington, DC, on 6 January as supporters of former president Donald Trump stormed the Capitol Building to disrupt Congress’ certification of Joe Biden’s victory, leaving five people dead. We highlight three key areas for risk managers. MSNBC. The longer it takes the Biden administration to put together a North Korea engagement strategy following his inauguration, the higher the possibility of an attention-grabbing missile launch or nuclear test. Risk 2: Long Covid. Read More. When he became president in 2018, Diaz-Canel promised to introduce reforms while maintaining the country’s communist system. The increased tensions imply an elevated risk for energy and maritime logistics in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. Though the agreement ensures that there will be no tariffs and quotas on trade in goods, independent bodies will monitor trade to ensure competition is fair, creating a notable regulatory burden. Versus the euro, the rouble was steady at 90.23 EURRUBTN=MCX.. In response to the Capitol riots, Twitter banned over 70,000 accounts linked to the QAnon conspiracy theory and Facebook blocked Trump’s account until Biden’s inauguration. The following is based on the panel session ‘Control Risks’ Geopolitical Keynotes for 2021’. The risks were recently highlighted by leader Kim Jong-un’s threat to further expand North Korea’s weapons modernisation programme and hostile remarks towards South Korea and the US at a meeting of the Workers’ Party congress in Pyongyang, which is the country’s largest political event. These grievances were previously highlighted when authorities stopped paying public sector wages due to an economic crisis caused by low oil prices and financial mismanagement. Before we look at the ten leading geopolitical risk levels for the coming year, it is interesting to look back at what we believed would be the ten biggest geopolitical risks of 2020. As such, it is clear that there will be much to watch in terms of geopolitical risk in 2021. But governing won’t be … Militants will continue to attempt to seize key settlements and sustain attacks on civilians and security forces. The uptick in militant activity will continue to pose a threat to Mali’s extractive industry, particularly its gold mining sector. This 2-hour virtual event will discuss short and long-term political and geopolitical risks outlining how Covid-19 will exacerbate pre-existing domestic tensions in many countries, while accelerating the trend of deglobalisation and pushing the US and China towards a more confrontational path. While countries such as the United States and Germany will have new leadership in 2021, most of the world’s other leading actors will continue to be led by the same people that have overseen this rise in geopolitical risk levels, boding ill for the prospects for a lessening of geopolitical tensions around the world. There is a heightened risk of violent anti-government protests across Iraq in the year ahead. IE 11 is not supported. In 2021, climate related geopolitical risks are most likely to accelerate along two trend lines: 1) regulatory or legislative changes aimed at fossil fuel intensive industries, and 2) extreme weather events that disrupt supply chains and upend infrastructure. 2021 Geopolitical Risk: The year ahead. If Correa’s preferred candidate, Andres Arauz, fails to win the presidency, or if the result is disputed, unrest among his supporters is likely to be high. Look ahead to the geopolitical events that will shape your world in 2021. Long Covid and fragile global value chains. The election-related unrest is expected to spark a harsh response from security forces and government-aligned militias. “There is no escaping that the pandemic will be the number one driver of risk around the world, short and long term,” says Hecker. The government controls as little as 20 percent of the country and, as a result, will likely remain powerless to impose its will outside of Bangui. The 16th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report analyses the risks from societal fractures—manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, youth disillusionment, and geopolitical fragmentation. There’s no single factor that raises the risk of a major disaster in cyberspace in … Businesses risk a disorderly shakeout which can exclude large cohorts of workers and companies … country intelligence for many of the world's leading companies, organizations and governments, with clients in more than 115 countries. ... 2021. By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021 By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021, at 3:56 p.m. Instead, the Biden administration is likely to refrain from taking any unilateral action against Beijing beyond January, which will briefly ease tensions with China. However, the effectiveness of such efforts is likely to be limited, as groups such as QAnon and Proud Boys may just move to alternative platforms. The risk now is that a major Russian offensive against Ukraine splits the continent from the Anglo-American world. The series of unilateral actions will make it difficult for President Joe Biden to significantly change the downward trajectory of relations between China and the US. As geopolitical turbulence persists, these digital rights risks will force regulatory action in 2021. We calculate the frequency of words that relate to geopolitical risk, adjust for positive and negative sentiment in the text of … The prime minister has faced rebellion from members of his coalition, resulting in the resignation of important ministers. The election went ahead and President Faustin-Archange Touadera was re-elected with 53.9 percent of the vote. The militants now largely control key routes into Palma, giving them further opportunities to expand northwards and eastwards. “There is no escaping that the pandemic will be the number one driver of risk around the world, short and long term,” says Hecker. The top geopolitical risks for 2021, according to Eurasia Group. Despite Tehran’s desire to get rid of crippling US sanctions, any renegotiation is unlikely in 2021 due to Washington’s domestic priorities and Iranian presidential elections in June. Pashinyan has replaced resigned ministers with long-standing political allies and is likely to continue to do so in the coming months. The clashes between government forces and the rebel coalition brings the February 2019 Khartoum peace agreement back to square one. MSNBC. This indicates that not only is the level of geopolitical risk dangerously high, but that the pandemic is likely to have actually increased the threat posed by a number of these issues and flashpoints, while at the same time creating new threats to global stability and security. High-profile, high-impact attacks from Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) are likely to continue in 2021. Meanwhile, Pyongyang has continued to advance its nuclear and missile capabilities. The administration of former US President Donald Trump has used sanctions, tariffs, and blacklists to target Beijing and its commercial interests. A coalition of six rebel groups loosely affiliated with former president Francois Bozizé threatened to march on the capital Bangui after Bozizé was barred from standing in the election. The ceasefire deal could generate economic benefits to Armenia, relieving pressure on Pashinyan. 1. Each side has been unable to agree upon what denuclearisation by Pyongyang entails or over whether North Korean denuclearisation or sanctions relief by the US and South Korea should come first. The following is based on the panel session ‘Control Risks’ Geopolitical Keynotes for 2021’. In the absence of effective dialogue mechanisms, intensifying friction in bilateral relations has wide-ranging implications for the Indo-Pacific region. You are cordially invited to a webinar on Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. Opposition parties lack widespread support because of their association with the unpopular former government of Serzh Sarkisian, which used lethal force to suppress dissent and was allegedly involved in the embezzlement of state funds. Political risks and violence returns to the top 10 of the Allianz Risk Barometer for the first time since 2018, reflecting the fact that civil unrest incidents such as protests and riots now challenge terrorism as the main political risk exposure for companies. Our aim is to help our clients navigate the complex and uncertain global, 24/7 digital world, enabling them to understand and manage their risk exposure and ensure operational resilience. In 2020, several cities saw Sadrist militiamen raiding protest camps and shooting protesters. 07967865, PGI - Protection Group International, 13-14 Angel Gate, London, England, EC1V 2PT, - PCI DSS Consulting and Compliance Services, - Investigations and corporate intelligence, Cyber security and Intelligence careers at PGI. Incoming US President Joe Biden intends to renegotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, which would reduce tensions from their current high level. Militants expanded their geographical reach and operational capabilities in 2020, suggesting a prolonged conflict is likely this year. Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. Government forces have been bolstered by the arrival of troops, military instructors and equipment from Rwanda and Russia, and – with support from 12,800 UN peacekeepers in the country – will likely be able to thwart any attempts to capture Bangui. Ecuador experienced mass protests over unpopular gasoline subsidy cuts in October 2019, and the country’s 7 February general election could reignite social tensions stemming from the issue. Political risk is creating both challenges and opportunities for organisations. Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. Militants have also significantly stepped up raids targeting islands off the coast of Cabo Delgado and, in November 2020, seized seven sailboats transporting food supplies from Pemba, demonstrating their growing maritime strategy and capabilities. ... Top 10 op risks 2021: geopolitical risk Stimulus unwind, Covid nationalism and regime changes spell volatile operating environment. Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. China stocks retreated from a four-week high as trading resumes after a one-day pause for holiday. The risk of military conflict over Taiwan continues to grow, while Chinese foreign policy will become more aggressive. - Intelligence. 2021 will reinforce the notion that digital technologies are the main battleground for geopolitical dominance. Tehran-backed militias in Iraq are also expected to continue with rocket attacks on US assets and IED attacks on coalition convoys. In the Americas, the Brazilian heads of the army, navy, and air force jointly announced their resignations in a move that will increase pressure on President Jair Bolsanaro. But whatever the reasons, the world today is more complicated and more dangerous than the world of just a year ago, and in many cases … The unrest highlighted the unpopularity of President Lenin Moreno, particularly among indigenous groups, who overwhelmingly supported populist former president Rafael Correa. The elections are likely to reignite grievances over living standards, public services, and corruption. World of Worries: Political Risks in 2021. The pandemic will continue to cause severe economic disruption. This 2-hour virtual event will discuss short and long-term political and geopolitical risks outlining how Covid-19 will exacerbate pre-existing domestic tensions in many countries, while accelerating the trend of deglobalisation and pushing the US and China towards a more confrontational path. Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast: Q1 2021. Confirmed cases and associated deaths are still rising in many countries, notably in Europe and North America, which is a trend that is unlikely to subside substantially in the first quarter of 2021. London signed a trade deal with the EU on 24 December and ended its withdrawal period on 1 January. It could also reaffirm the commonly held view among these groups that mainstream media and social media platforms are censoring conservative viewpoints. As we prepare to enter a new year, and leave behind a year that most people would like to forget, it is clear that the elevated levels of geopolitical risk that we have been facing in recent years will remain in place for the foreseeable future. Advanced Search. With economic and social tensions having soared as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the potential for conflict and unrest in many parts of the world has risen substantially, and any further dislocations that result from the pandemic will certainly add to these tensions in the months ahead. Analysis. Risk 1: 46*. Add to this the fact that the Covid-19 pandemic will still be with us in 2021, and the fact that the economic fallout from the pandemic will continue to be felt in the coming year, and it is easy to see how this could be a year in which geopolitical risk levels rise even further. Top 10 op risks 2021: geopolitical risk Stimulus unwind, Covid nationalism and regime changes spell volatile operating environment Israel is likely to conduct further covert sabotage activities to undermine, or as insurance for, future renegotiations between the US and Iran, which could prompt reprisal attacks from Tehran in the year ahead.